CoStar and Tourism Economics downgraded development projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. lodge forecast simply launched on the NYU Worldwide Hospitality Funding Discussion board.
Given Q1 underperformance and elevated macroeconomic considerations, forecasted development charges had been lowered throughout the top-line metrics: provide (-0.1 ppts), demand (-0.6 ppts), ADR (-0.3 ppts) and RevPAR (-0.8 ppts).
Comparable changes had been made for 2026: provide (-0.5 ppts), demand (-0.3 ppts), ADR (-0.7 ppts) and RevPAR (-0.6 ppts).
Prime-line efficiency continues to be rising even within the present atmosphere. Till client confidence improves, nevertheless, demand goes to stay softer—particularly within the center and lower cost tiers. Price is pushing the highest line within the group section, and enterprise transient ought to proceed to get better in lots of industries, however leisure beneficial properties are going to be extra remoted. Our forward-looking knowledge continues to help the observations of many trade stakeholders that reserving home windows have shortened. That provides to the challenges hoteliers will face within the coming quarters. Amanda Hite, STR president
We’re waiting for a second half of the yr with shoppers dealing with greater costs and a weaker labor market, companies tapping the brakes on funding, and tender worldwide customer volumes. Whereas recession dangers have eased, the economic system—and the journey sector—will stroll on a decent rope via this era. Aran Ryan, director of trade research at Tourism Economics
The projection for gross working revenue per accessible room (GOPPAR) was additionally lowered $3 for 2025.
Whereas GOP development will proceed, the tempo can be modest as a consequence of softer demand, rising departmental prices, and restricted margin beneficial properties from ancillary revenues,” Hite mentioned. “When adjusted for inflation, GOP is down from final yr.”